Illini and Hoosiers duke it out in Big Ten brawl

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini are hoping a win tonight at No. 23 Indiana will give them a boost as they come down the home stretch in what has been a fairly odd season thus far.

Illinois is 16-7 on the year, but the bulk of those wins came against lesser competition during a non-conference slate that really only featured a couple of tough bouts. Since the start of Big Ten Conference play, the Illini are an even 5-5, and going back to the middle of December, they are just 6-7 in their last 13 games. Illinois dropped a 74-70 decision at home to Northwestern on Monday night, and coach Bruce Weber's club comes into this clash sporting a 2-3 record in true road tilts.

Indiana was one of the surprise stories during the first couple of months of the 2011-12 season, as coach Tom Crean's team jumped out to a 12-0 start, which included an upset of No. 1 Kentucky on December 10. Since the start of conference action however, the Hoosiers have split a dozen games, and have alternated wins and losses over the last few weeks. IU is coming off a 78-61 victory at Purdue, and the team will try to improve upon its stellar 13-1 home mark with a win tonight.

The all-time series between Illinois and Indiana is knotted at 83-83, but the Illini have won five of the last six meetings.

Illinois isn't the most explosive offensive team around, but the Illini certainly hold their own in netting 66.8 ppg on 44.9 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 32.1 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the team allows just 61.3 ppg with foes converting a mere 41.0 percent of their total shots, but 35.7 percent of their long-range tries. UI boasts three double-digit scorers in the form of Brandon Paul (15.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.1 apg), Leonard Meyers (13.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and D.J. Richardson (12.2 ppg), but only Meyers, the team's starting center, is shooting at what anyone would consider an acceptable rate (.582). Paul and Meyers both hit for more than 20 points in the recent loss to Northwestern, with the latter also grabbing nine boards and blocking a pair of shots for good measure. Unfortunately for the Illini, even a 54.2 percent shooting performance couldn't offset a sizzling 60.4 percent effort put forth by the Wildcats, who scored 36 points in the paint, compared to 24 for Illinois.

Indiana is clearly the better of these two teams in terms of offensive efficiency, as the Hoosiers lead the Big Ten in scoring offense (78.5 ppg), field goal percentage (.495) and three-point FG percentage (.431). The club's defensive effort yields an average of 65.7 ppg, and opponents are hitting their field goal attempts just 41.9 percent of the time, and IU owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.9) and turnovers (+0.9). Freshman Cody Zeller (15.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 34 steals, 33 blocks) has been Indiana's most consistent performer this season, and he is one of four players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column. Christian Watford (12.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Jordan Hulls (12.1 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Victor Oladipo (10.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 37 steals) have all contributed, and Oladipo was high man for the Hoosiers in the recent win over Purdue, as he went 6-of-14 from the floor and 10-of-12 at the foul line to finish with 23 points. He also wound up with eight of the team's 53 rebounds in the game, and Zeller tallied 16 points and eight boards as well. Indiana shot just 41.8 percent from the field, but held the Boilermakers to 29.6 percent while claiming a 29-14 edge in points from the charity stripe.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.