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01/06/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Wegher ran for a game-clinching 32-yard touchdown with less than two minutes remaining, and Ricky Stanzi threw for a pair of scores in his return from ankle surgery, as 10th-ranked Iowa pulled out a 24-14 victory against No. 9 Georgia Tech in the 76th edition of the Orange Bowl.
Stanzi was 17-of-29 for 231 yards and had an interception returned for a touchdown, while the freshman Wegher totaled 113 yards on 16 carries for Iowa (11-2), which notched its first major bowl win since beating California in the 1959 Rose Bowl.
The Hawkeyes seemed destined to return to the Rose Bowl after starting the season 9-0, but the injury to Stanzi led to consecutive losses to Northwestern and eventual Big Ten champ Ohio State in November to foil those plans.
Iowa's stingy defense held Tech to just 155 yards of offense, with junior defensive end Adrian Clayborn leading the way with nine tackles and two sacks to garner MYP honors.
"The fact that Adrian won the MVP in a BCS bowl, that doesn't happen too often where a defensive lineman dominates the way he did," said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. "Our whole group up front did a great job...and that's what it takes against a team like Georgia Tech."
Georgia Tech's spread offense couldn't recreate its success of the regular- season, as dynamic quarterback Josh Nesbitt was held to 46 yards rushing and two completions on nine pass attempts for 12 yards, including a critical fourth-quarter interception.
Anthony Allen's rushing TD represented the lone offensive score, while Jerrard Tarrant had a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown for the Yellow Jackets (11-3), who captured their first outright ACC title since 1990.
Georgia Tech hasn't won in the postseason since taking a 51-14 decision from Syracuse in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl.
Georgia Tech's offense finally got on track and put seven on the board to make it a 17-14 game 2 1/2 minutes into the fourth.
An 11-play series spanning 71 yards bridged the two quarters and ended when Allen muscled his way across the goal line from a yard out on third down. Dwyer picked up a key first down earlier in the drive with an eight-yard run on 3rd-and-3 inside Iowa territory.
The Yellow Jacket defense came away with a big stop at midfield and forced a Hawkeye punt to get the ball back at their own 11 with a little less than nine minutes to go.
But on the next play, Nesbitt lost sight of Iowa's A.J. Edds while going through his progressions and threw perfectly down the middle of the field into the senior linebacker's waiting arms. Edds took it 13 yards the other way to the 15-yard line, but Tech breathed new life after a botched fake field goal attempt led to a turnover on downs.
However, three plays lost eight yards, including a run where junior running back Jonathan Dwyer narrowly escaped a safety, and the Yellow Jackets punted back to Iowa with less than five minutes left.
"After they ran the fake field goal...the first play we end up reversing field and getting tackled at the one. We kind of self-destructed ourselves a little bit," said Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson. "We didn't execute very well and we put ourselves behind the eight-ball with penalties too."
Starting from their own 37, Stanzi completed a nine-yard pass to Trey Stross on 3rd-and-8 to keep the chains moving and a 23-yard run by Wegher took the ball into enemy territory. Two plays later Wegher used a burst of speed to outrun several defenders up the left sideline for a 32-yard touchdown and 24-14 lead with 1:56 remaining.
Nesbitt then threw four straight incompletions to seal the Hawkeyes win.
Stanzi had the Hawkeyes out to a quick start, leading scoring drives of 80 and 83 yards on two of their first three drives to go up 14-0.
Iowa's initial possession ended on a Marvin McNutt fumble but a quick three- and-out by the Yellow Jackets had the ball back in Hawkeye hands in short order.
A 54-yard completion to tight end Tony Moeaki quickly moved the ball to the Tech nine-yard line, and on 3rd-and-goal Stanzi hit McNutt for a three-yard touchdown at the back right corner of the end zone.
Georgia Tech again produced a three-and-out and Iowa embarked on another quick scoring series. It took just four plays to move 83 yards in 1:54.
Adam Robinson's 15-yard run on the second play was followed by a 31-yard hookup between Stanzi and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to gain the Yellow Jackets' 21-yard line. On the next play, Stanzi dropped a perfect pass over the inside shoulder of Colin Sandeman just past the right pylon to give Iowa a 14-0 lead with four minutes left in the opening quarter.
The lead was cut in half just before the close of the frame when Tarrant stepped in front of an ill-advised Stanzi pass to the right side of the field and took it back 40 yards untouched to the end zone.
Both offenses bogged down in a scoreless second quarter. Iowa punted three times and turned it over on downs just before halftime while Georgia Tech went into the intermission with only one first down.
The Yellow Jackets opened the second half with a promising drive that featured a heavy dose of Dwyer, who ran it six times for 33 yards on the 12-play, 44- yard series. But Scott Blair hung a 41-yard field goal out to the right to keep the deficit at seven.
Daniel Murray capped an ensuing 10-play, 59-yard trek from Iowa with a 33-yard boot to go up by 10 with 2:17 to play in the third.
Game Notes
Georgia Tech fell to 22-16 in the postseason all-time, including a 3-3 mark in the Orange Bowl...Iowa moved to 13-10-1 in postseason play and 1-1 in the Orange Bowl. Their only other appearance resulted in a 38-17 loss to USC in 2003...This was the first-ever meeting between these two teams on the gridiron...Robinson had 60 yards on 13 touches, Sandeman caught four balls for 53 yards and McNutt made four grabs for 21 yards for Iowa...The Hawkeyes' leading receiver was Moeaki, who totaled 85 yards on four grabs...Dwyer gained 49 yards on 14 carries and caught both Nesbitt completions...Georgia Tech ended with only nine first downs compared with Iowa's 21.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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